Australia has lowered its forecast revenue from commodity exports, as soaring gold prices have not been enough to counter declines in iron ore and natural gas.

According to a quarterly report released on Monday by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, total earnings from resource and energy exports in Australia dropped by around 7% to an estimated A$385 billion ($252 billion) over the 12 months ending in June.

The department also warned that earnings are expected to decrease further over the next two years due to increasing trade barriers, slower global economic growth, and falling prices, Bloomberg reports.

Iron ore remains Australia's top export earner, accounting for roughly 30% of total resource income. Although export volumes are expected to increase, lower ore grades and declining prices are projected to push earnings for iron ore below A$100 billion in 2026–2027, the first time this has happened in the current decade.

In addition, liquefied natural gas (LNG), the country's second-largest export commodity, is also expected to see a drop in revenue, with prices forecast to fall from around $15 per million British thermal units earlier this year to about $10 by 2027, as increased supply from the US and Qatar enters the market.

Meanwhile, earnings from thermal coal are set to decline, while those from steelmaking coal are expected to remain stable.

However, the outlook is significantly brighter for gold, Australia’s third-largest export commodity, with earnings projected to rise by 22% to $56 billion in the financial year ending Monday.

The Department of Industry, Science and Resources is also optimistic about the prospects for copper, lithium, and uranium, anticipating strong performance in these sectors moving forward.

“Higher prices for gold, and forecast higher copper and lithium exports, are partly offsetting the impact of lower prices for iron ore, coal and LNG. While global commodity prices are easing, the report suggests Australian resources companies will continue to remain competitive on the global stage,” according to Resources Minister Madeleine King.

Moreover, while lithium prices are expected to “remain subdued,” the report notes that Australia is projected to retain its position as the world’s leading supplier of the battery metal through 2027.