Australian inflation came in below expectations in November, according to figures released on Wednesday, although underlying price pressures remained firm enough to keep alive market concerns that interest rates could be raised as soon as next month.
The Australian Dollar briefly weakened before recovering to $0.6734, while three-year government bond futures initially climbed five ticks but later reversed course to trade slightly lower at 95.78.
Investors continue to price in a roughly 33% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will need to raise interest rates again in February.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the monthly consumer price index was flat in November, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.8%. Economists had expected a 0.3% monthly increase and a yearly rate of 3.7%.
The softer result reflected price declines in clothing, footwear, furnishings, and household equipment, driven in part by Black Friday discounting, Reuters reports.
Recreation and culture costs also eased during the month as demand for domestic travel cooled following the holiday period.
By contrast, the trimmed mean measure of core inflation rose 0.3% in November, lifting the annual rate to 3.2% from 3.3% in October, and remaining above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band.
Furthermore, housing costs rose a firm 1.1% in November, led by increases in rents and prices of new dwellings, pointing to continued stickiness in inflation pressures.
“As the RBA digests the idiosyncrasies of the new monthly CPI measure, it continues to focus on the quarterly measure to inform rate movements,” stated Harry Murphy Cruise, Head of Economic Research at Oxford Economics Australia.
“That data lands at the end of the month, with 3.2% being the magic number for trimmed mean inflation. Anything above that will warrant a hike when the RBA board next meets in early February.”
The central bank lowered interest rates three times last year to 3.6%, but has cautioned that its next move could be a hike amid a renewed rise in inflation.
Headline inflation picked up in the third quarter to 3.2%, stoking fears that monetary policy may no longer be sufficiently restrictive.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank have forecast a quarter-percentage-point rate increase next month, saying the economy is already operating at full capacity. The labour market has also remained robust, with unemployment holding near a historically low 4.3%.